Flash estimates for the second quarter of 2003

+0.4% and +0.6% compared to the second quarter of 2002

GDP remained stable in the euro-zone and in the EU15 during the second quarter of 2003, compared to the previous quarter, according to flash estimates published today by Eurostat, the Statistical Office of the European Communities in Luxembourg. In the first quarter of 2003, growth rates were +0.1% for both zones.

Compared to the same quarter of the previous year, GDP grew by 0.4% in the euro-zone and by 0.6% in the EU15, after +0.9% and +1.1% respectively in the previous quarter.

During the second quarter 2003, US GDP increased by 0.6% with respect to the previous quarter, after +0.4% in the first quarter 2003. GDP in Japan grew by 0.6%, after +0.3% in the previous quarter. Compared to the second quarter of 2002, GDP grew by 2.3% in the US and by 2.1% in Japan, after +2.0% and +2.8% respectively in the previous quarter.

Euro-zone: Belgium, Germany, Greece, Spain, France, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Austria, Portugal and Finland.

The flash estimate of the GDP growth rate, at 1995 constant prices and derived from seasonally adjusted data, for the euro-zone and the EU15 is calculated by using as indicators GDP figures referring to all Member States for which data are already available (see table) as well as, for the reference quarter, related indicators for France and Spain for which GDP data are not yet available.

Simulations and previously published flash estimates have shown the flash estimation procedure to be reliable. As an example, over the last 10 quarters, the flash estimate of the growth rate on the previous quarter for euro-zone GDP 7 times correctly anticipated the growth rate published in the first estimate and 3 times differed by 0.1%. For the growth rate on the same quarter of the previous year, the flash 5 times correctly anticipated the first estimate, 4 times differed by 0.1% and once by 0.2%.

According to the flash methodology, all euro-zone and EU15 GDP figures for earlier quarters are not revised, so the growth rates till the first quarter 2003 published in News Release 91/2003 of 6 August 2003 remain unchanged (for more details of the flash methodology please refer to News Release 55/2003).

In addition to this flash estimate, Eurostat will as usual issue three estimates of GDP for the second quarter 2003: the first estimate on 9 September 2003, the second on 9 October 2003 and the third on 6 November 2003.

Growth rates of GDP in volume (based on seasonally adjusted data)

Percentage change compared to the previous quarter Percentage change compared to the same quarter of the previous year
2002 2003 2002 2003
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
Euro-zone 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.0 1.2 0.9 0.4
EU15 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.2 1.4 1.1 0.6
Member States
Belgium 0.5 0.3 0.2 : 0.9 1.7 1.4 :
Denmark -0.5 0.0 0.5 : 1.6 1.5 1.5 :
Germany 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 -0.2
Greece 1.3 -0.3 2.9 0.4 3.7 3.4 4.3 4.4
Spain 0.7 0.3 0.5 : 1.8 2.1 2.1 :
France 0.3 -0.1 0.3 : 1.3 1.4 1.1 :
Ireland* : : : : 7.2 7.5 0.5 :
Italy 0.2 0.4 -0.1 -0.1 0.4 0.9 0.7 0.3
Netherlands 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 -0.9
Austria 0.2 0.2 0.2 : 1.4 1.4 1.0 :
Portugal -2.7 -0.3 0.1 : -0.3 -1.3 -1.2 :
Finland 0.4 0.4 -1.2 : 2.8 3.2 1.3 :
Sweden 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 2.1 1.8 1.9 1.5
United Kingdom 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.3 2.3 2.3 2.1 1.8
EFTA countries
Norway -1.0 -0.2 0.3 : 0.3 -0.5 0.6 :
Switzerland 0.3 0.0 -1.0 : 0.6 0.7 -0.5 :
Main economic partners
United States 1.0 0.3 0.4 0.6 3.3 2.9 2.0 2.3
Japan 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.6 1.5 2.5 2.8 2.1
Canada 0.7 0.4 0.5 : 3.9 3.5 2.7 :

: Data not available
* Data not seasonally adjusted

Issued by:
Eurostat Press Office
Philippe BAUTIER, Tim ALLEN,
Louise CORSELLI, and
Aurora ORTEGA SANCHEZ
BECH Building
L-2920 LUXEMBOURG
Tel: +352-4301-33 444
Fax: +352-4301-35 349
eurostat-pressoffice@cec.eu.int
Eurostat news releases on the Internet:
http://europa.eu.int/comm/eurostat
For further information on data:
Roberto BARCELLAN
Ingo KUHNERT
Luca PROTTI
Tel.: +352-4301-35 802
+352-4301-35 234
+352-4301-35 005
Fax: +352-4301-33 879
roberto.barcellan@cec.eu.int
ingo.kuhnert@cec.eu.int
luca.protti@cec.eu.int

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