|
|
Commission Report (2002): Poland
Poland's impressive track record of economic growth since
the mid-1990s has been interrupted by the sharp slowdown in activity
experienced since 2001. The average real GDP growth since the 1997 opinion
has been solid at 4.2%, but masks a marked slowdown, primarily attributable
to domestic factors, since the second half of 2000. The positive side-effect
of the slowdown has been the correction of a number of macroeconomic
imbalances that had arisen as a result of strong domestic demand. The current
account deficit, after peaking at more than 8% of GDP in early 2000, has now
reverted to a level equivalent to the one that prevailed in 1997. Annual
average inflation reached a new low of 5.3% last year, resuming a rapid
process of inflation reduction that had been interrupted in 1999--2000, in a
context combining unexpected supply shocks and an strong easing of policy
rates by the central bank after the Russian crisis. The general government
deficit has averaged 2.8% of GDP over the period since the Opinion, but has
widened significantly in the past year, primarily due to a combination of
rapid rise in expenditure and the slowdown in growth and fall in inflation
and their combined impact on revenues. With the downturn, high unemployment
and inactivity have become the main imbalances in the Polish economy.
|
Main Economic
Trends |
|
Poland |
|
1997 |
1998 |
1999 |
2000 |
2001 |
Average |
2002 latest |
|
Real GDP growth rate |
6.8 |
4.8 |
4.1 |
4.0 |
1.1 |
4.2 |
0.5 Q1 |
|
|
Inflation rate |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| -
annual average |
percent |
15.0 |
11.8 |
7.2 |
10.1 |
5.3 |
9.9 |
3.1 July
1 |
| -
December-on-December |
percent |
13.2 |
8.6 |
9.8 |
8.4 |
3.5 |
11.3 |
1.3 July |
|
Unemployment rate |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| -
LFS definition |
percent |
11.0 |
9.9 |
12.3 |
16.3 |
18.4 |
13.6 |
19.9 Q2 |
|
General government budget
balance |
percent of
GDP |
-4.3 |
-2.3 |
-1.5 |
-1.8 |
-3.9p |
-2.8p |
|
|
Current account balance |
percent of
GDP |
-4.0 |
-4.4 |
-8.1 |
-6.3 |
-4.1 |
-5.4 |
|
|
Million ECU/ |
-5,065 |
-6,156 |
-11,716 |
-10,824 |
-8,0012 |
-8,352 |
-4,418
Jan.-July3 |
|
Gross foreign debt of the whole
economy |
percent of exports of
goods and services |
110.7 |
84.1 |
102.1 |
79.2 |
: |
: |
|
| -
debt export ratio |
Million ECU/ |
35,884 |
33,4774 |
38,848 |
39,838 |
: |
: |
|
|
Foreign direct investment
inflow |
percent of
GDP |
3.4 |
4.0 |
4.7 |
5.9 |
3.2 |
4.2 |
|
| -
balance of payments data |
Million ECU/ |
4,328 |
5,678 |
6,821 |
10,115 |
6,377 p |
6,664 p |
2,486
Jan.-July5 |
| Sources:
Eurostat. National sources. OECD external Debt
Statistics |
p=provisional figures
|
- Moving
12 months average rate of change.
- Source:
Website of the National Bank.
- Source:
Website of the National Bank.
- series
break as a result of some technical changes to the definition.
- Source:
Website of the National Bank.
|
Poland has completed transition reforms in terms of trade and price
liberalisation, is well advanced in privatisation, and has made considerable
advances in second generation reforms. This is particularly the case with
respect to major systemic reforms in pensions (with the introduction of a
three-pillar system), health care, education and the territorial organisation
of the country. These reforms will serve to place welfare regimes on a more
sustainable financial footing in the medium term and improve efficiency in
the provision of services, even if they have been confronted, in some cases,
with substantial implementation difficulties. The privatisation process is
advanced and has enabled enterprises to be restructured in many sectors
(notably because the methods used for privatisation have served to avoid
major corporate governance problems like the dilution of ownership). However,
there are still many companies in state ownership and privatisation has
recently slowed down. The business climate is generally conducive to
enterprise creation and investment, even though firms are faced with red tape
and other impediments to their growth which have contributed to maintaining a
significant level of underground activity. Important challenges remain in the
restructuring of key sectors, such as agriculture or heavy industry.
Prior to the 2001 downturn, Poland was slowly, but steadily catching up
with the EU in terms of income. GDP per head in purchasing power standards
(PPS) now represents around 40% of the EU average, which means that Poland
and made some progress in catching up. The overall success of economic reform
in the mid 1990s, after the initial transition-related output contraction
earlier in the decade, has contributed to a decrease in the incidence of
poverty. Income and poverty exhibit significant regional disparities, not
least due to the fact that rural areas have gained little from the overall
progress in convergence. Four Eastern Voivodships are on a per capita basis
below 77% of the national average (update with 2001 data). The overall
activity rate has been stable at around a low 66%, and decreasing for men.
Mirroring this low activity rate and rising unemployment, the employment rate
has fallen from around 59% in 1997 to 53.8% in 2001. Unemployment is also a
phenomenon which affects primarily the young and the less skilled,
representing respectively 41% and 22.3% of total average unemployment in
2001, and women, whose average unemployment rate is higher by more than 1.5
percentage points compared to the economy-wide average.
|
Main Indicators of
Economic Structure in 2001 |
|
Population (average) |
Thousand |
38,641 |
|
GDP per head1 |
PPS |
9,200 |
|
per cent of EU
average |
40 |
|
Share of agriculture2
in: |
|
|
| -
gross value added |
percent |
3.4 |
| -
employment |
percent |
19.2 |
|
Gross fixed capital
formation/GDP |
percent |
21.5 |
|
Gross foreign debt of the whole
economy/GDP3 |
percent |
23.3 |
|
Exports of goods &
services/GDP |
percent |
29.8 |
|
Stock of foreign direct
investment |
|
|
|
Million |
36,7834 |
|
per
head5 |
925 |
|
Long term unemployment rate |
percent of labour
force |
9.2 |
|
- Figures
have been calculated using the population figures from National
Accounts, which may differ from those used in demographic
statistics.
-
Agriculture, hunting, forestry and fishing.
- Data
refer to 2000.
- Data
refer to 2000.
- Figures
have been calculated using the population figures from National
Accounts, which may differ from those used in demographic
statistics.
|
© European Commission
|
